Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات كورة) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
79% | 21% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
79% | 21% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Aleksandar Vukic vs Lorenzo Musetti Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 79% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Aleksandar Vukic vs Lorenzo Musetti Match O/U 21.5 | 55% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Aleksandar Vukic vs Lorenzo Musetti Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 52% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Aleksandar Vukic vs Lorenzo Musetti Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Aleksandar Vukic vs Lorenzo Musetti Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Aleksandar Vukic vs Lorenzo Musetti Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Aleksandar Vukic vs Lorenzo Musetti Match O/U 22.5 | 49% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Aleksandar Vukic vs Lorenzo Musetti Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 47% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Aleksandar Vukic vs Lorenzo Musetti Match O/U 23.5 | 43% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Aleksandar Vukic vs Lorenzo Musetti Set 2 Winner | 39% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Aleksandar Vukic vs Lorenzo Musetti Set 1 Winner | 38% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Aleksandar Vukic vs Lorenzo Musetti Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 38% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Aleksandar Vukic vs Lorenzo Musetti | 32% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Aleksandar Vukic vs Lorenzo Musetti Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 30% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Aleksandar Vukic vs Lorenzo Musetti Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 18% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, توقع: mubadala citi dc open: aleksandar vukic vs lorenzo musetti stands at 79% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Aleksandar Vukic and Lorenzo Musetti in the Mubadala Citi DC Open, originally scheduled for July 29, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Mubadala Citi DC Open: Aleksandar Vukic vs Lorenzo Musetti. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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