Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات كورة) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
90% | 10% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
90% | 10% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 90% |
| CF Villarreal C O/U 0.5 | 81% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 80% |
| O/U 1.5 | 76% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 69% |
| Levante UD O/U 0.5 | 66% |
| CF Villarreal C 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 62% |
| Both Teams to Score | 59% |
| O/U 2.5 | 52% |
| CF Villarreal C 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 50% |
| Levante UD 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| CF Villarreal C 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Levante UD 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 48% |
| CF Villarreal C O/U 1.5 | 47% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 47% |
| Levante UD 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| Levante UD O/U 2.5 | 37% |
| Levante UD (-2.5) | 35% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 34% |
| CF Villarreal C (-1.5) | 33% |
| O/U 3.5 | 33% |
| Levante UD O/U 1.5 | 32% |
| Levante UD (-1.5) | 27% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 25% |
| Levante UD 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 22% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 21% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 21% |
| CF Villarreal C O/U 2.5 | 20% |
| O/U 4.5 | 16% |
| CF Villarreal C 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 16% |
| CF Villarreal C (-2.5) | 12% |
| O/U 5.5 | 8% |
Market context
Market consensus: 90% chance of توقع: cf villarreal c vs. levante ud - more markets. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. More markets for the Club Friendlies game, scheduled for August 5 at 4:00 AM ET.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: CF Villarreal C vs. Levante UD - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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