Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات كورة) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
92% | 8% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
92% | 8% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Lionel Messi: 1+ shots | 92% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots | 84% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots | 81% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots | 72% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots | 71% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ shots | 69% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ shots | 69% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots | 68% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ shots | 67% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots | 62% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ shots | 56% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ shots | 55% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots | 55% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ shots | 52% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ferrán Torres: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Merino: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Merino: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Merino: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Cucurella: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Pedri: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ assists | 48% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Ferrán Torres: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Mikel Merino: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Nico Williams: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Nicolás González: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Nicolás González: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Rodri: 1+ shots | 48% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Rodri: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ assists | 47% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Yeremi Pino: 3+ goals | 47% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ goals | 46% |
| Mikel Merino: 3+ goals | 46% |
| Nicolás Paz: 2+ goals | 45% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ shots on target | 45% |
| Juan Musso: 2+ saves | 44% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots | 44% |
| Yeremi Pino: 2+ goals | 43% |
| David Raya: 2+ saves | 41% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots | 41% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots on target | 40% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots | 39% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots on target | 39% |
| Juan Musso: 3+ saves | 37% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals | 36% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ shots | 36% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots | 36% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots | 35% |
| Cucurella: 1+ shots | 34% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots on target | 34% |
| David Raya: 3+ saves | 32% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots on target | 32% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ shots on target | 32% |
| Juan Musso: 4+ saves | 31% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals | 31% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots | 30% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots | 30% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Nahuel Molina: 1+ shots | 28% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 1+ shots | 28% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ shots on target | 28% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ goals | 28% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ goals | 27% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ goals | 27% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ assists | 27% |
| Cristian Romero: 1+ shots | 27% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 1+ shots | 27% |
| Pedri: 1+ shots | 26% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ shots on target | 26% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals | 25% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals + assists | 25% |
| David Raya: 4+ saves | 24% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ goals | 24% |
| Gavi Paez: 2+ goals | 24% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 1+ shots | 24% |
| Nicolás Tagliafico: 1+ shots | 24% |
| Nicolás Paz: 3+ goals | 24% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ goals | 23% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ goals | 23% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 2+ goals | 23% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals | 23% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ shots | 23% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ shots | 23% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals + assists | 22% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots on target | 22% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots on target | 22% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots | 21% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots on target | 21% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Mikel Merino: 2+ assists | 19% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots on target | 19% |
| Pedri: 1+ shots on target | 19% |
| David Raya: 5+ saves | 18% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ shots | 18% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ shots on target | 18% |
| Rodri: 1+ shots on target | 18% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals + assists | 17% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ shots | 17% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots | 17% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots on target | 17% |
| Mikel Merino: 1+ goals | 16% |
| Pedri: 2+ shots | 16% |
| Rodri: 2+ shots | 16% |
| Cucurella: 1+ shots on target | 16% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ shots on target | 16% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals | 15% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ shots on target | 14% |
| Nicolás Tagliafico: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ shots on target | 13% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots on target | 13% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 1+ shots on target | 13% |
| Nahuel Molina: 1+ shots on target | 13% |
| Nahuel Molina: 2+ shots | 12% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ shots | 12% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ shots on target | 12% |
| Cristian Romero: 1+ shots on target | 12% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots on target | 12% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Juan Musso: 5+ saves | 10% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Nicolás Paz: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 2+ shots | 10% |
| Cucurella: 2+ shots | 10% |
| Lamine Yamal: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Lionel Messi: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Nicolás Tagliafico: 2+ shots | 10% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 2+ shots | 10% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 2+ shots | 9% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Gavi Paez: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Rodri: 3+ shots | 8% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals | 7% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Mikel Merino: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Ferrán Torres: 3+ goals | 6% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals | 6% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ goals | 6% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Yeremi Pino: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Cristian Romero: 2+ shots | 6% |
| Leandro Paredes: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Pedro Porro: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Julián Álvarez: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Dani Olmo: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Alex Baena: 5+ shots | 3% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Mikel Merino: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Pedri: 3+ shots | 2% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 3+ shots | 2% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals | 1% |
Market context
توقع: Spain vs. Argentina - Player Props — current market-implied probability: 92%. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Spain and Argentina, scheduled for July 19 at 3:00 PM ET.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Spain vs. Argentina - Player Props. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2216%2C18%2020%2C4%2024%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%23fbbf24%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2224%2C18%2028%2C3%2032%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%23fbbf24%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2232%2C18%2036%2C3%2040%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%23fbbf24%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2240%2C18%2044%2C4%2048%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%23fbbf24%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
and%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%2010%2018%20Q%2016%204%2026%2010%20Q%2020%202%2032%206%20Q%2044%202%2038%2010%20Q%2048%204%2054%2018%22%20stroke%3D%22%23fbbf24%22%20stroke-width%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22none%22%20stroke-linecap%3D%22round%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
Trade توقع: Spain vs. Argentina - Player Props on توقعات كورة
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →