Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات كورة) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| CR Flamengo (-1.5) | 100% |
| CR Flamengo (-2.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Mirassol FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CR Flamengo O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CR Flamengo O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| CR Flamengo O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| CR Flamengo 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Mirassol FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CR Flamengo 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CR Flamengo 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Mirassol FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Mirassol FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Mirassol FC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Mirassol FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Mirassol FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Mirassol FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| CR Flamengo 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Mirassol FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Mirassol hosted Flamengo in a Brazil Série A fixture on 16 August, with the market sitting at 0% YES despite Flamengo’s deeper squad and stronger baseline quality. Recent team-news snapshots pointed to Flamengo missing or carrying doubts over several regular options, including Nicolás de la Cruz, Bruno Henrique, Éverton, Alex Sandro and Vitão, while Mirassol had fewer confirmed absences, mainly José Aldo and Negueba[1][4][14]. That kind of availability gap is exactly what can depress confidence in “more markets”, because goal-related outcomes often hinge on whether Flamengo can field its usual attacking structure or is forced into a narrower, less fluid setup[1][4].
The historical lens is straightforward: in comparable Série A matches where a stronger away side is depleted and the underdog is close to full strength, the pricing on secondary markets can stay pinned until late team-sheet confirmation. Any late decision on Bruno Henrique, Alex Sandro or Luiz Araújo would matter, as would whether Gabriel Knesowitsch or other Mirassol doubts were cleared before kick-off[7][10][14][15]. Trader attention should also sit on the official line-ups and the timing of Flamengo’s attacking selections, because those final choices can swing the balance sharply if the side starts Pedro, Carrascal and Arrascaeta together rather than a rotated front line[6][9][11].
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Mirassol FC vs. CR Flamengo - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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