Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات كورة) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
16% | 84% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
16% | 84% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| CF Villarreal C 0 - 0 Levante UD | 16% |
| Any Other Score | 14% |
| CF Villarreal C 1 - 1 Levante UD | 13% |
| CF Villarreal C 1 - 0 Levante UD | 9% |
| CF Villarreal C 2 - 1 Levante UD | 9% |
| CF Villarreal C 2 - 0 Levante UD | 7% |
| CF Villarreal C 2 - 2 Levante UD | 7% |
| CF Villarreal C 0 - 1 Levante UD | 5% |
| CF Villarreal C 1 - 2 Levante UD | 5% |
| CF Villarreal C 3 - 1 Levante UD | 5% |
| CF Villarreal C 3 - 0 Levante UD | 4% |
| CF Villarreal C 0 - 2 Levante UD | 3% |
| CF Villarreal C 3 - 2 Levante UD | 3% |
| CF Villarreal C 1 - 3 Levante UD | 2% |
| CF Villarreal C 2 - 3 Levante UD | 2% |
| CF Villarreal C 3 - 3 Levante UD | 2% |
| CF Villarreal C 0 - 3 Levante UD | 1% |
Market context
CF Villarreal C host Levante UD in a club friendly with an exact-score market that is only lightly priced at **16% Yes**, which points to a fairly open result pool rather than a strong lean to a single scoreline. The closest comparable head-to-head data favours Villarreal overall: Sportradar lists 41 meetings since 1996, with Villarreal winning 26, Levante 10 and five draws, while FootyStats’ broader sample shows Villarreal also ahead on goals scored across the series.[2][3]
Recent meetings have not followed a rigid pattern, which matters for an exact-score market. Villarreal beat Levante 1-0 in LaLiga on 18 February 2026, but the earlier 24 January 2026 league meeting finished Levante 2-1 Villarreal, and the recent dataset also shows low-to-moderate scoring with clean sheets appearing frequently for the winner.[2][5][14] That profile usually supports a narrow set of plausible outcomes rather than a high-scoring blowout, although the friendly setting makes line-up rotation more influential than in league play.
For traders, the key catalysts are team sheets, late withdrawals and whether either side treats the game as a proper dress rehearsal or a heavy rotation exercise. Levante’s recent league run before this fixture was mixed, including defeats to Barcelona, Athletic Bilbao and Valencia, alongside a draw with Atlético and a win over Elche, so any first-choice defensive pairing missing from the XI would materially shift the score expectation.[8][14] Villarreal’s own recent results include wins over Leverkusen, Legia and Alboraya, plus a draw with Valencia, suggesting enough attacking capability for multiple scorelines if senior players start.[5]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: CF Villarreal C vs. Levante UD - Exact Score. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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