Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات كورة) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Inter Turku O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Inter Turku 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FC Inter Turku O/U 1.5 | 99% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 99% |
| FC Inter Turku 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 99% |
| FC Vaduz O/U 0.5 | 98% |
| FC Inter Turku O/U 2.5 | 59% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| FC Inter Turku 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| FC Vaduz 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| FC Vaduz 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| FC Vaduz O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| FC Vaduz O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| FC Inter Turku (-2.5) | 32% |
| FC Inter Turku (-1.5) | 21% |
| O/U 4.5 | 10% |
| O/U 5.5 | 8% |
| FC Vaduz (-1.5) | 4% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 1% |
| FC Vaduz 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| FC Vaduz (-2.5) | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC Inter Turku 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Vaduz 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
FC Inter Turku host FC Vaduz in UEFA Conference League qualifying, with the market sitting at 27% for “YES” on the more-markets set. The historical frame is fairly even: the sides have met four times, with Inter Turku unbeaten in that sample and a 6-6 aggregate on goals, which points to tight margins rather than a one-sided tie.[3][5]
Recent numbers lean to a game with scoring chances at both ends. Inter Turku’s latest run includes a 2-0 win over Istanbul Başakşehir, a 1-0 league win at VPS, and a 1-2 home defeat to Gnistan, while Vaduz arrive with strong away underlying output in comparable data, averaging 2.4 goals per away match in the head-to-head split and 67% BTTS in those figures.[2][1] That mix helps explain why the price is below one-third despite Inter’s unbeaten H2H record: the market is not pricing a clean home edge so much as a competitive, open fixture.[1][3]
The key catalysts are team news and whether either side rotates after the first-leg setup. Inter’s line-up will matter because their recent results suggest they are capable of controlling the game when settled, but the latest available previews only confirm predicted line-ups rather than final XI, so any late changes to attackers or centre-backs could move the totals and BTTS markets quickly.[8][12] For traders, the most relevant dependency is the confirmed starting teams an hour before kick-off, alongside any late injury or suspension update from club or UEFA channels, because that is where the gap between a 27% crowd read and the final shape of the tie is most likely to close.[14][12]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: FC Inter Turku vs. FC Vaduz - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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