Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات كورة) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| The Hundred, Women: London Spirit vs Manchester Super Giants - Completed match? | 100% |
| The Hundred, Women: London Spirit vs Manchester Super Giants - Who wins the toss? | 44% |
| The Hundred, Women: London Spirit vs Manchester Super Giants | 0% |
Market context
London Spirit and Manchester Super Giants have already met in The Hundred women’s competition this season, and the result points clearly one way: Manchester Super Giants bowled Spirit out for 80 and chased the target in 59 balls for a seven-wicket win at Lord’s.[1][3][11] That is the main historical anchor for reading this market, because it shows a gap not just in the result but in margin, with the Super Giants’ attack controlling the game and Spirit failing to post a defendable total.[1][11] The points table impact was also immediate, with the Super Giants moving to the top on net run rate after that victory.[6]
For traders, the key catalysts are squad availability, batting order continuity and whether Spirit can field a stronger top order after being rolled over so cheaply in the earlier meeting.[1][2] London Spirit’s listed home fixture at Lord’s is scheduled for 23 July, so any late team news, injury update or overseas-player availability issue will matter more than usual in a short-format match where one collapse can decide the market quickly.[10] The other dependency is current momentum: Manchester Super Giants have the stronger recent headline result, while Spirit’s opening performance leaves little margin for error if the line-up is unchanged.[1][12] Because this market resolves on the official match result, any weather-affected shortening or on-field method of deciding a winner would still count as a normal win or loss under the settlement rules.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $68K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: The Hundred, Women: London Spirit vs Manchester Super Giants. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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