Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات كورة) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 90% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 90% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 90% |
| Ends in Daytime | 90% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 10% |
| Any Player Rampage | 10% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 10% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 10% |
| Any Player Rampage | 10% |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Game Handicap: LYNX (-1.5) vs PuckChamp (+1.5) | 0% |
| Ends in Daytime | 0% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
| Game Handicap: PckCp (-1.5) vs Team Lynx (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
PuckChamp and Team Lynx are scheduled to meet in a best-of-three upper-bracket quarter-final at the Asgard Championship playoffs, with the market tied to whether PuckChamp win the series. The price has been pushed to an implied 100% YES, but the underlying match context still matters: the only cited head-to-head in July went 2-0 to PuckChamp, and multiple previews frame that as a useful tactical reference point rather than a decisive long-term edge.[3][6][17]
For historical framing, PuckChamp’s single recorded win over Team Lynx came on 20 July, while Team Lynx entered this meeting after a mixed run that included recent losses in the same tournament cycle.[6][12][17] Rankings in the available previews also place PuckChamp slightly ahead of Lynx, with one source listing them #33 and #40 respectively, and another showing a similar gap at #34 versus #43.[6][14] That kind of modest separation is consistent with a match that can still turn on draft order, map vetoes, and early-game execution in a BO3, especially when recent form has been uneven on both sides.[3][11]
Traders should watch for any late schedule slippage, because the market only flips to 50-50 if the series is not played, ends level, or is delayed beyond seven days from the scheduled date without a winner.[Market description] The most relevant live catalyst is whether the event starts cleanly and whether line-ups remain unchanged from preview listings: PuckChamp are shown with Krylat, meLes, Astral, Dukalis and BOBiNA, while Team Lynx are listed with mellojul, 7jesu, QBFY, poshliy_vladik and kreker.[14] Any replacement, pause, or abandoned game would matter more here than usual given the market’s settlement rules and the narrow evidence base around this pairing.[16]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Dota 2: PuckChamp vs Team Lynx (BO3) - Asgard Championship Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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