توقع: July Inflation US - Annual

Platform comparison

Market context

US inflation for the 12 months to July 2026 will be fixed by the BLS CPI release due on 12 August, and the market is currently pricing only a **2%** chance of a yes outcome. That low probability sits against a recent pattern of volatility: headline CPI was **4.2%** year on year in May, then dropped to **3.5%** in June after a sharp monthly fall, according to the BLS and Reuters. [1][6]

For context, comparable readings this year have moved quickly enough to keep forecasts unstable. June’s print was far below the **3.8%** consensus and cut the annual rate by seven-tenths in one month, while core CPI eased only to **2.6%**, suggesting the headline path can swing on energy and other volatile components even when underlying inflation is stickier. Cleveland Fed nowcasts around mid-July had still pointed to July headline inflation in the low-to-mid **3%** range, with one estimate at **3.32%** and another at **3.49%**, so a sub-3% annual print would need a further meaningful downshift from June. [3][4][6]

The key catalysts are the July CPI month-on-month change, gasoline and energy prices, and whether services inflation remains firm, because these components will determine how much the annual rate decelerates from June’s base. Traders will also watch the BLS schedule itself and any late-July energy moves before the 12 August release, since the market has already seen forecasts clustered around **3.8%** for June before the downside surprise, and similar gaps in July would make a 2% yes outcome hard to justify. [5][8][9][16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: July Inflation US - Annual. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

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