Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات كورة) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
50% | 50% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
50% | 50% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| A | 50% |
| B | 50% |
| C | 50% |
| D | 50% |
| E | 50% |
| Other | 50% |
| BLG | 32% |
| HLE | 26% |
| T1 | 14% |
| KC | 12% |
| GEN | 11% |
| WE | 10% |
| DCG | 6% |
| TLAW | 5% |
| LYON | 3% |
| NIP | 3% |
| G2 | 1% |
| TES | 1% |
| DK | 1% |
| AL | 0% |
| KT | 0% |
| FLY | 0% |
| JDG | 0% |
| WBG | 0% |
| TSW | 0% |
| CFO | 0% |
| C9 | 0% |
| MKOI | 0% |
| IG | 0% |
| GAM | 0% |
| BFX | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, توقع: league of legends global power rankings post worlds: rank 1 stands at 50% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market will resolve to the team ranked number 1 on the Global Power Rankings at the end of the 2026 competitive year. The market resolves to whichever team occupies the numbe…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: League of Legends Global Power Rankings Post Worlds: Rank 1. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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