Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات كورة) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 100% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 100% |
| Match Winner | 72% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 72% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 3? | 64% |
| Game 3 Winner | 55% |
| Game 4 Winner | 55% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2? | 51% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs LOUD (+1.5) | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 4? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 49% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 48% |
| Game 2 Winner | 47% |
| Game Handicap: LOS (-2.5) vs LOUD (+2.5) | 25% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 22% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 1% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 21.5 in Game 1? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of توقع: lol: los vs loud (bo5) - cblol playoffs. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the LoL Upper Bracket Final match between LOS and LOUD in the CBLOL Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 27, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. This market will res…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: LoL: LOS vs LOUD (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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