Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات كورة) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
67% | 33% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
67% | 33% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 67% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 67% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 60% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 59% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 52% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3? | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 48% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 46% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2? | 44% |
| Game 1 Winner | 41% |
| Game 2 Winner | 41% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? | 41% |
| Match Winner | 40% |
| Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) | 36% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 29% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 29% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 27% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 27% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
Market context
Market consensus: 67% chance of توقع: lol: t1 vs gen.g (bo3) - esports world cup playoffs. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the LoL 3rd Place match between T1 and Gen.G in the Esports World Cup Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 19 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "T1…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
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