Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات كورة) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
68% | 32% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
68% | 32% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 68% |
| O/U 6.5 | 62% |
| Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees | 57% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 54% |
| O/U 7.5 | 52% |
| NRFI | 45% |
| Spread -1.5 | 45% |
| O/U 8.5 | 42% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 41% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 33% |
| Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 28% |
| Spread -1.5 | 27% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 24% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 19% |
| Spread -2.5 | 17% |
| Extra Innings | 9% |
Market context
The Atlanta Braves and New York Yankees are meeting in the second game of a series at Yankee Stadium, with the Yankees having taken the opener 3-2 on Friday night. That result matters for price because the crowd is now leaning to New York at 57% YES, and the market has to weigh whether Atlanta’s stronger season record and recent run outweighs the home side’s momentum.[3][10][13]
The broader form line is mixed but useful: Atlanta entered the series 8-2 over its previous 10, while New York was 5-5, with the Braves also carrying the better recent run prevention numbers in the ESPN preview.[8][10] Season-to-date, Atlanta has been the more complete team overall at 70-46, including a 31-26 road record, while New York sits at 65-51 and 28-25 at home.[10][13] The matchup also has a power angle: the Yankees lead the American League with 164 home runs, but Atlanta has been strong when it puts the ball in play, going 49-16 in games with eight or more hits.[8]
For traders, the key catalysts are the final line-ups, late pitcher confirmations, and any injury-related scratches, especially on the New York side where the listed absences include Aaron Judge, Carlos Rodón, Giancarlo Stanton and Clarke Schmidt.[8] Atlanta’s injury list also remains relevant, with Spencer Strider, Spencer Schwellenbach, Reynaldo López and Joe Jiménez among those on the IL.[8][10] With the settlement window tied to the completed game, any postponement or make-up scheduling would matter, but absent that, the market should move mainly on confirmed starters and whether either offence can sustain the scoring patterns seen in the last few games.[1][8]
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $295K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
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