Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات كورة) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
60% | 40% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
60% | 40% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 6.5 | 60% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 54% |
| Extra Innings | 50% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers | 47% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| O/U 7.5 | 39% |
| Spread -1.5 | 34% |
| Spread -1.5 | 33% |
| O/U 8.5 | 32% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 27% |
| Spread -2.5 | 25% |
| O/U 9.5 | 22% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 21% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 18% |
| Spread -2.5 | 16% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 14% |
| NRFI | 1% |
Market context
The Cleveland Guardians travel to Detroit on 13 August for an afternoon matchup against the Tigers in what shapes as a divisional contest with playoff implications for both AL Central contenders. The 47% implied probability for a Guardians victory reflects genuine competitive balance, though context matters significantly. Cleveland enters August as a consistent postseason threat with a winning record, whilst Detroit has mounted an unexpected challenge after years of rebuilding, making this fixture consequential for both franchises' September positioning.
Historical head-to-head records between these clubs show relatively even splits over recent seasons, with home-field advantage proving marginal in their matchups. The Tigers' recent resurgence—driven by improved pitching depth and emerging offensive contributions from younger players—has narrowed what was once a pronounced talent gap. Cleveland's experience in tight races typically translates to steadier performance down the stretch, yet Detroit's hunger and home-crowd support at Comerica Park cannot be discounted, particularly in day games where the Tigers have shown inconsistent but occasionally explosive form.
Traders should monitor pre-game roster announcements regarding injuries to key position players or starting pitchers for both sides, as the August 13 fixture falls within a period when teams often manage workload for veterans. Recent trades or call-ups could alter lineup construction materially. Weather conditions at Comerica Park—afternoon games frequently feature wind patterns affecting fly-ball outcomes—warrant checking forecasts closer to game time. Any last-minute bullpen availability changes or unexpected roster moves in the 48 hours preceding first pitch will likely shift the current probability meaningfully.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $384K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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