Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات كورة) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
73% | 27% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
73% | 27% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 73% |
| O/U 6.5 | 65% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 59% |
| O/U 7.5 | 54% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 47% |
| O/U 8.5 | 46% |
| NRFI | 45% |
| Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates | 42% |
| Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 35% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 34% |
| Spread -1.5 | 31% |
| Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 26% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 23% |
| Spread -2.5 | 23% |
| Extra Innings | 9% |
Market context
The Detroit Tigers travel to Pittsburgh on 18 August for an evening fixture against the Pirates, with the market currently pricing a Tigers victory at 42 per cent. This matchup falls late in the regular season, a window when roster depth and recent momentum typically exert outsized influence on outcomes. The Pirates have struggled through 2026, whilst the Tigers have shown inconsistent form, making this a contest between two teams unlikely to feature prominently in October discussions.
Historically, matchups between these franchises have favoured neither side decisively, though the Tigers hold a marginal edge in head-to-head records over recent seasons. The current 42 per cent probability for Detroit reflects modest confidence in the visiting side, suggesting the market views Pittsburgh's home-field advantage and recent scheduling patterns as meaningful factors. Late-August games often feature fatigue effects and roster adjustments as teams manage workload ahead of September callups.
Traders should monitor lineup announcements in the 48 hours preceding the fixture, particularly any late injuries to key position players or pitching rotations. The Pirates' recent performance against left-handed starters and the Tigers' bullpen availability following their previous game will influence closing odds. Weather conditions at PNC Park—notably wind direction affecting fly-ball distances—can shift expectations for teams with particular offensive profiles. Settlement occurs on 25 August, allowing seven days post-game for official MLB statistics confirmation.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $126K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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