Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات كورة) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| NRFI | 100% |
| O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| O/U 11.5 | 100% |
| Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| Spread -5.5 | 100% |
| O/U 12.5 | 100% |
| Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| Spread -6.5 | 100% |
| Spread -8.5 | 100% |
| Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox | 0% |
| Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 0% |
| Extra Innings | 0% |
| Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 15.5 | 0% |
Market context
Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox is a late-July AL matchup in Chicago that sits near pick-em pricing rather than anything close to a routine favourite-versus-underdog spot. The market’s 0% YES implies no meaningful price is attached to one side yet, but the recent numbers point to a tight game: multiple books had Chicago narrowly favoured or essentially level with Houston, and the White Sox had been stronger at home, while Houston arrived with a sub-.500 record and recent rotation volatility[1][2][4][6][7].
The historical framing is that these teams have not been separated by much in the market this week, so the main clue is not a big talent gap but how the starting pitching has been trending. Sportsbookwire reported Houston starter Hunter Brown had a 7.98 ERA across three July starts and that the Astros had lost his last two outings, while Chicago had won five straight games he had appeared in as a starter and he carried a 1.40 ERA over his last six appearances[1]. In comparable market terms, that kind of recent pitching split is exactly what can flip a game from coin-flip territory into a live underdog home spot.
What traders should watch is the final line-up card, any late rest day for core bats, and confirmation of the starters and bullpen availability as first pitch approaches. The game was listed for 2:10 p.m. ET at Rate Field, with consensus odds still hovering around the even-money range and totals around 9 to 9.5 runs, so any scratch, weather delay, or bullpen usage from the previous night could move the price quickly[2][4][6][7]. The White Sox also came in at 31-18 at home in the cited preview, which makes the venue itself a material factor if Chicago keeps its regular order intact[1].
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $752K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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