Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات كورة) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| O/U 7.5 | 85% |
| O/U 8.5 | 78% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 70% |
| O/U 9.5 | 64% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 59% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 56% |
| O/U 10.5 | 55% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| Extra Innings | 50% |
| Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees | 30% |
| Spread -1.5 | 19% |
| Spread -2.5 | 12% |
| NRFI | 0% |
Market context
The Houston Astros’ visit to the New York Yankees comes into focus with both clubs carrying significant injury drag, which makes the crowd’s 60% YES price easier to justify than a clean read on talent alone. The Yankees are still without Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Max Fried, while Ryan McMahon and Ryan Weathers are also on the injured list; Houston’s absentees include Carlos Correa, Mike Burrows and Brice Matthews, leaving both line-ups thinner than their labels suggest.
Recent form also points to a narrower edge than the market implies. Houston arrived on the back of a rough stretch, including losses to the Athletics and a heavy defeat to the Angels, while the Yankees’ recent results and wider season record keep them in the game even with the injury pile-up. In comparable match-ups like this, the side with the healthier everyday run production tends to matter more than overall name value, particularly when both pitching staffs have been stripped of depth.
The main catalysts are late line-up confirmations and any last-minute pitching changes, because both teams have already moved starters and relievers on and off the injured list. Ethan Pecko and Will Warren were listed as the probable starters in pre-game previews, so any switch there would move the price quickly, especially if either club leans on a short bullpen. The market should also watch for further roster updates from MLB injury reports on 25 August, which have already listed several key absences for both teams.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $497K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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