Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات كورة) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
77% | 23% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
77% | 23% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 77% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 63% |
| O/U 7.5 | 57% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| NRFI | 50% |
| O/U 8.5 | 49% |
| New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves | 43% |
| Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 39% |
| O/U 9.5 | 39% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 32% |
| Spread -1.5 | 31% |
| Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 28% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 28% |
| Spread -2.5 | 22% |
| Extra Innings | 10% |
Market context
The Mets travel to Atlanta on 10 August for a divisional matchup against the Braves, with first pitch at 7:15 PM ET. The 43% implied probability for a Mets victory reflects their status as road underdogs in a fixture where Atlanta holds considerable recent leverage. The Braves have dominated this pairing over the past two seasons, winning roughly 60% of their head-to-head contests. Atlanta's roster depth and consistency in the National League East have made them formidable at home, where they typically post win rates 5–8 percentage points higher than on the road.
The settlement window extends to 17 August, allowing for rescheduling should weather or other factors force a postponement. Traders should monitor lineup announcements 24 hours before first pitch, particularly regarding the Mets' availability in the outfield and the Braves' rotation health. Recent injury reports from both camps—especially any late-notice absences from core position players—can shift the line materially. The Braves' bullpen depth, which has been tested heavily in August fixtures, remains a critical variable; if key relievers are unavailable, the Mets' chances improve substantially. Conversely, any Mets rotation uncertainty or unexpected roster moves could reinforce Atlanta's favourability. Check official MLB injury reports and team announcements through 9 August for confirmation of starting pitchers and active roster status.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $131K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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