Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات كورة) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
72% | 28% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
72% | 28% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 4.5 | 72% |
| Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets | 60% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Extra Innings | 50% |
| Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| O/U 5.5 | 36% |
| O/U 6.5 | 28% |
| Spread -2.5 | 24% |
| O/U 7.5 | 20% |
| Spread -1.5 | 17% |
| O/U 8.5 | 13% |
| O/U 9.5 | 10% |
| Spread -2.5 | 8% |
| NRFI | 0% |
Market context
Washington Nationals at New York Mets sits in a spot where the market’s 60% YES price on Washington reflects more than just home-field noise. The Mets are carrying a substantial injury list, including Juan Soto, Mark Vientos, Devin Williams and Cionel Pérez, while Washington have also been missing James Wood, Drew Millas and several arms, so neither side is close to full strength.[1][2][5][7]
Recent form also points to a volatile read rather than a clean favourite. New York have been patchy across their latest stretch, while Washington have been roughly break-even since the trade deadline, even after moving regulars Curtis Mead and Luis Garcia Jr. and ace Foster Griffin.[6][14] With Andrew Alvarez lined up against Robert Stock, the starting pitching edge looks limited and the result is likely to be driven by bullpen quality and late availability rather than a clear lineup gap.[6]
The main catalysts to watch are whether either club makes a late change to the announced bat orders, and whether any of the injury-status players are upgraded before first pitch or kept out again on precautionary grounds.[1][2][5][7][11] If the game is delayed or completed after the original window, the settlement rule keeps the market open until official completion, so any postponed schedule wrinkle matters directly to timing rather than just performance.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $122K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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