Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات كورة) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| FC Cincinnati (-1.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FC Cincinnati O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Cincinnati O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FC Cincinnati O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| San Jose Earthquakes O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| San Jose Earthquakes O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FC Cincinnati 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| San Jose Earthquakes 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| FC Cincinnati 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Cincinnati 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| San Jose Earthquakes 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| San Jose Earthquakes (-1.5) | 0% |
| FC Cincinnati (-2.5) | 0% |
| San Jose Earthquakes (-2.5) | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| San Jose Earthquakes O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC Cincinnati 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| San Jose Earthquakes 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| San Jose Earthquakes 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
FC Cincinnati beat San Jose Earthquakes 4-2 in MLS on 1 August, and that result fits a short head-to-head history that has skewed strongly towards goals. Cincinnati have won two of the three meetings between the clubs, scoring 10 and conceding three overall, with the outlier being San Jose’s 1-0 home win in 2019.[1][2][11] The more recent sample is especially relevant: Cincinnati won 4-2 in San Jose in June 2024 and then thumped the Quakes 6-0 in 2022, so the matchup has repeatedly produced one-sided scorelines rather than tight, low-event contests.[1][5][9]
Form entering the fixture pointed the same way. Sky Sports listed Cincinnati after a 2-1 defeat at Columbus and a 4-3 win over Vancouver, while San Jose came in after a 1-1 draw with LA Galaxy and a 4-0 home loss to Orlando City.[3] Sports Mole also noted Cincinnati had gone seven MLS matches without a clean sheet, while San Jose had conceded in 11 straight league games and were on a run of one win in seven, which matters for any “more markets” pricing tied to goals, both teams to score, or match events.[14] The biggest catalysts to watch are late team sheets, any change to the starting strikers, and whether either side rotates after a compressed MLS schedule; Cincinnati’s recent goal output has leaned heavily on Kévin Denkey, while San Jose’s production has been less stable in recent weeks.[12][13]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: FC Cincinnati vs. San Jose Earthquakes - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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