Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات كورة) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 94% |
| New York Red Bulls O/U 0.5 | 80% |
| O/U 1.5 | 77% |
| Nashville SC O/U 0.5 | 74% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 72% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 72% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 64% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 62% |
| New York Red Bulls 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 61% |
| Nashville SC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 61% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 59% |
| Both Teams to Score | 56% |
| O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| New York Red Bulls 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Nashville SC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| New York Red Bulls 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| New York Red Bulls 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Nashville SC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Nashville SC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| New York Red Bulls O/U 1.5 | 41% |
| Nashville SC O/U 1.5 | 40% |
| O/U 3.5 | 29% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 24% |
| New York Red Bulls (-1.5) | 17% |
| Nashville SC (-1.5) | 17% |
| New York Red Bulls O/U 2.5 | 16% |
| Nashville SC O/U 2.5 | 16% |
| O/U 4.5 | 14% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 13% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 10% |
| Nashville SC (-2.5) | 7% |
| New York Red Bulls (-2.5) | 6% |
| O/U 5.5 | 6% |
Market context
New York Red Bulls host Nashville SC with both sides arriving in mixed but live scoring form, which helps explain why the crowd is only at 17% YES for an unspecified “more markets” outcome. New York lost 2-1 at Atlanta on 15 August, but had beaten Orlando 3-2 earlier in the month, while Nashville followed a 4-1 win over Inter Miami on 15 August with a Leagues Cup run that included a 4-1 win over Aston Villa? No — the reliable recent set is: 4-1 over Miami, 2-1 loss at Monterrey, 4-1 over ASL, 1-0 loss to León, and 2-2 at DC United, pointing to a side capable of producing high-event matches. The head-to-head has also been tighter than the broader market might imply: the Red Bulls have three wins in the all-time series, Nashville one, and four draws, with several low-scoring meetings among them.[5][9][12][13]
The main line-up watch is the injury list. Nashville were without Warren Madrigal in the latest health report, while New York listed A.J. Marcucci out and Rafael Mosquera questionable; other listings also flagged Patrick Yazbek for Nashville, which matters because midfield absences can change the pace and pressing structure of these games.[1][2][4][15] Late team news is the most important catalyst: if Mosquera is cleared, New York gain another wide outlet; if Yazbek is ruled out, Nashville lose a useful ball-progressor. With the match on a short turnaround after both clubs played league fixtures on 15 August, any rotation, travel load, or late change to the starting forwards would have an outsised effect on totals and both-teams-to-score type markets.[2][8][12]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: New York Red Bulls vs. Nashville SC - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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