Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات كورة) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Philadelphia Union O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Philadelphia Union 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 99% |
| O/U 1.5 | 96% |
| O/U 2.5 | 85% |
| Inter Miami CF O/U 0.5 | 85% |
| Both Teams to Score | 84% |
| Philadelphia Union O/U 1.5 | 82% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 74% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 74% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 73% |
| Inter Miami CF 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 71% |
| Philadelphia Union 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 70% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 68% |
| O/U 3.5 | 65% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 64% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 63% |
| Inter Miami CF 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 55% |
| Inter Miami CF O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Philadelphia Union 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Philadelphia Union 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Inter Miami CF 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Inter Miami CF 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Philadelphia Union O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| O/U 4.5 | 42% |
| Philadelphia Union (-1.5) | 37% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 37% |
| Inter Miami CF O/U 2.5 | 25% |
| O/U 5.5 | 24% |
| Philadelphia Union (-2.5) | 18% |
| Inter Miami CF (-1.5) | 9% |
| Inter Miami CF (-2.5) | 4% |
Market context
Philadelphia Union vs Inter Miami CF is a high-scoring MLS meeting with the market leaning towards a notable chance of a broader “more markets” outcome at 37% YES. The recent head-to-head points to volatility rather than control: Inter Miami beat Philadelphia 6-4 in May, and the clubs have also produced a 3-3 draw and a 2-1 Miami win in recent meetings, which fits a fixture that can swing on early goals and match-state shifts.
Current form also points both ways. Philadelphia arrived off a 3-2 away win at New York City and had put together a run of tight, productive home results, while Miami came in after a 4-1 defeat at Nashville, despite a generally strong league position and a higher-scoring profile over the season. That makes the 37% price look tied to whether this becomes another open, transition-heavy game rather than a more controlled contest.
The main trader catalysts were team news and availability. Inter Miami were set to be without Rodrigo De Paul through suspension, while Matteo Silvetti, Santiago Morales and Micael were also out, with Germán Berterame listed in concussion protocol in the build-up to the match[1][6]. Philadelphia’s cleaner injury picture and Miami’s missing midfield and attacking depth were the obvious late variables, especially if the line-ups confirmed any reshuffle around Messi and the forward line[1][14].
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Philadelphia Union vs. Inter Miami CF - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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