Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات كورة) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FC Famalicão O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CS Marítimo O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CS Marítimo O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FC Famalicão 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CS Marítimo 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CS Marítimo 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Famalicão (-1.5) | 0% |
| CS Marítimo (-1.5) | 0% |
| FC Famalicão (-2.5) | 0% |
| CS Marítimo (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC Famalicão O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Famalicão O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| CS Marítimo O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC Famalicão 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| CS Marítimo 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC Famalicão 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| FC Famalicão 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| CS Marítimo 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Famalicão will host Marítimo on 16 August 2026 in a Primeira Liga fixture, with kick-off scheduled for 3:30 PM ET. The 0% implied probability suggests the market is either illiquid, awaiting clarification on what "more markets" entails, or reflects extreme confidence in a specific outcome that hasn't yet crystallised in pricing. Given this is an opening-weekend fixture in the Portuguese top flight, both sides will be operating on pre-season form and squad continuity from the prior campaign.
Famalicão finished mid-table in 2025–26, whilst Marítimo occupied a lower berth and faced relegation pressure. Head-to-head records favour neither side decisively; recent encounters have been tight affairs with mixed results. The absence of injury bulletins and team news at this stage makes line-up composition uncertain. Suspension carryovers from the previous season are unlikely unless domestic cup finals or European ties extended into summer, which is rare for Portuguese clubs outside the top three.
Traders should monitor squad announcements and pre-season friendlies scheduled for late July and early August, which will signal player fitness and tactical direction. Managerial changes at either club—common during summer windows—could shift expected performance. Transfer activity affecting key personnel will matter; departures of established players to stronger leagues typically weaken mid-table and lower-table sides more acutely. Official team sheets released 24 hours before kick-off will be the final catalyst for repricing, particularly if unexpected absences emerge.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: FC Famalicão vs. CS Marítimo - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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