Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات كورة) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
68% | 32% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
68% | 32% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 68% |
| Qarabağ Ağdam FK O/U 0.5 | 54% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Qarabağ Ağdam FK 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Qarabağ Ağdam FK 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia O/U 0.5 | 36% |
| O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| Qarabağ Ağdam FK O/U 1.5 | 26% |
| Both Teams to Score | 21% |
| Qarabağ Ağdam FK (-1.5) | 16% |
| O/U 2.5 | 10% |
| Qarabağ Ağdam FK O/U 2.5 | 9% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia O/U 1.5 | 8% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia O/U 2.5 | 4% |
| Qarabağ Ağdam FK (-2.5) | 3% |
| O/U 3.5 | 3% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia (-1.5) | 2% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia (-2.5) | 1% |
| O/U 4.5 | 1% |
| O/U 5.5 | 1% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Qarabağ Ağdam FK 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Qarabağ Ağdam FK 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Qarabağ Ağdam FK meeting PFK CSKA Sofia in Europa League qualifying is the kind of tie where the market tends to lean on the stronger recent attacking profile rather than the badge names. FootyStats’ head-to-head and comparison page shows Qarabağ as markedly ahead in goals scored, with a +156% edge on that metric versus CSKA Sofia, which supports why the crowd is still only pricing a modest 16% chance on the “more markets” position rather than treating this as a near-lock.[1]
For traders, the main catalysts are the line-ups and any late European-squad or injury news, because these early-round qualifiers can swing sharply if either side rotates key attackers or protects minutes ahead of the second leg. Qarabağ’s recent European campaigns have generally given them a stronger attacking floor than CSKA Sofia, but that edge is most relevant if their first-choice forward line is intact; if either club announces unexpected absences at the last moment, the probability can move quickly before kick-off.[1]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Qarabağ Ağdam FK vs. PFK CSKA Sofia - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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