Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات كورة) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 98% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Cloud9 (-2.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+2.5) | 97% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 91% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Cloud9 (-3.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+3.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Cloud9 (-4.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+4.5) | 90% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Fluxo W7M (-2.5) vs Cloud9 (+2.5) | 90% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Fluxo W7M (-4.5) vs Cloud9 (+4.5) | 90% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Fluxo W7M (-5.5) vs Cloud9 (+5.5) | 90% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Fluxo W7M (-3.5) vs Cloud9 (+3.5) | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Cloud9 (-5.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+5.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Cloud9 (-6.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+6.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Cloud9 (-7.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+7.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Cloud9 (-8.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+8.5) | 90% |
| Match Winner | 86% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 51% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Cloud9 (-2.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Cloud9 (-3.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Cloud9 (-4.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+4.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Cloud9 (-5.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+5.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Cloud9 (-6.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+6.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Cloud9 (-3.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Cloud9 (-4.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+4.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Cloud9 (-9.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+9.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: C9 (-1.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Cloud9 (-2.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: W7M (-1.5) vs Cloud9 (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of توقع: valorant: cloud9 vs fluxo w7m (bo3) - vct americas stage 2 play-in. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Valorant Upper bracket round 1 match between Cloud9 and Fluxo W7M in the VCT Americas Stage 2 Play-In, initially scheduled for August 14 at 8:00PM ET. Th…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Valorant: Cloud9 vs Fluxo W7M (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Play-In. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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