Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات كورة) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants | 100% |
| NRFI | 100% |
| O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| O/U 11.5 | 100% |
| O/U 12.5 | 100% |
| O/U 14.5 | 100% |
| O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| O/U 15.5 | 100% |
| O/U 16.5 | 100% |
| O/U 17.5 | 100% |
| O/U 18.5 | 100% |
| O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Spread -1.5 | 99% |
| Spread -2.5 | 93% |
| Extra Innings | 50% |
| Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| O/U 20.5 | 44% |
| Spread -5.5 | 41% |
| O/U 21.5 | 21% |
| Spread -1.5 | 1% |
| Spread -2.5 | 1% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 0% |
Market context
The Colorado Rockies host the San Francisco Giants on 16 August at 4:05 PM ET in Denver, with the market currently pricing the Rockies at 65% implied probability. The Giants arrive at Coors Field having struggled through the 2024 season, whilst the Rockies' home-field advantage in baseball's most hitter-friendly ballpark historically shifts run expectancy significantly. Denver's elevation and thin air have produced consistent offensive inflation, particularly benefiting teams with established power hitters in their lineup.
Head-to-head records between these divisional opponents show the Rockies have held marginal advantages in recent seasons, though individual game outcomes depend heavily on starting pitcher matchups and roster availability. The Giants' pitching depth has been a constraint throughout their campaign, whilst Colorado's ability to generate runs at home has remained a reliable statistical edge. Injuries to key position players or unexpected roster moves in the days preceding the fixture could materially shift the probability, particularly if either team's outfield or catching depth faces disruption.
Traders should monitor official roster announcements through 15 August for any late-breaking suspensions, injuries, or lineup changes. Weather conditions at Coors Field—particularly wind direction and temperature—can influence ball carry distance meaningfully. The settlement window extends to 23 August to accommodate potential postponements, though August games in Denver rarely face weather delays. Recent performance trends for both teams' offences against left-handed and right-handed pitching should be cross-referenced against the confirmed starting pitchers once announced.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $296K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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