Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات كورة) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
70% | 30% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
70% | 30% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 70% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 56% |
| O/U 7.5 | 46% |
| NRFI | 45% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 44% |
| Spread -1.5 | 43% |
| San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners | 37% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 37% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 30% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -2.5 | 24% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 23% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 20% |
| Extra Innings | 11% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -2.5 | 10% |
Market context
توقع: San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners — current market-implied probability: 70%. In the upcoming MLB game between the San Francisco Giants and Seattle Mariners, scheduled for July 17 at 10:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "San Francisco Giants" if the San Francisco Giants win…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $156K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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