Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات كورة) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
83% | 17% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
83% | 17% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 219.5 | 83% |
| O/U 222.5 | 79% |
| O/U 225.5 | 74% |
| O/U 228.5 | 66% |
| O/U 230.5 | 63% |
| O/U 231.5 | 61% |
| Hawks vs. Magic: O/U 233.5 | 56% |
| O/U 234.5 | 54% |
| Spread: Magic (-2.5) | 53% |
| O/U 235.5 | 52% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| O/U 236.5 | 49% |
| Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| Jalen Johnson: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 46% |
| Spread -4.5 | 46% |
| CJ McCollum: Assists O/U 3.5 | 45% |
| O/U 238.5 | 45% |
| Franz Wagner: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 44% |
| Hawks vs. Magic | 43% |
| Jalen Johnson: Assists O/U 7.5 | 43% |
| Onyeka Okongwu: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 43% |
| Spread -5.5 | 42% |
| Paolo Banchero: Assists O/U 5.5 | 42% |
| Franz Wagner: Assists O/U 5.5 | 42% |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Assists O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| Jalen Suggs: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| O/U 241.5 | 39% |
| CJ McCollum: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 38% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 38% |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 37% |
| Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| Franz Wagner: Assists O/U 4.5 | 36% |
| Spread -7.5 | 36% |
| Dyson Daniels: Rebounds O/U 6.5 | 35% |
| Dyson Daniels: Assists O/U 4.5 | 35% |
| Desmond Bane: Assists O/U 3.5 | 35% |
| CJ McCollum: Points O/U 16.5 | 33% |
| O/U 244.5 | 33% |
| Jalen Johnson: Points O/U 20.5 | 32% |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Points O/U 18.5 | 32% |
| Paolo Banchero: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 31% |
| Jalen Suggs: Assists O/U 4.5 | 31% |
| Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 22.5 | 30% |
| Franz Wagner: Points O/U 21.5 | 30% |
| Onyeka Okongwu: Points O/U 13.5 | 30% |
| Desmond Bane: Points O/U 18.5 | 30% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Points O/U 10.5 | 30% |
| Dyson Daniels: Points O/U 10.5 | 30% |
| Jalen Suggs: Points O/U 13.5 | 29% |
| Spread -10.5 | 29% |
| Spread -5.5 | 29% |
| Onyeka Okongwu: Assists O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| Desmond Bane: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 27% |
| O/U 247.5 | 27% |
| Spread -13.5 | 21% |
| Spread -8.5 | 20% |
| Spread -16.5 | 15% |
| Spread -11.5 | 14% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 83% YES probability for توقع: Hawks vs. Magic. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 21 at 7:00PM ET: If the Hawks win, the market will resolve to "Hawks". If the Magic win, the market will resolve to "Magic". If the game is postponed, t…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $72K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Hawks vs. Magic. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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