Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات كورة) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
75% | 25% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
75% | 25% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 221.5 | 75% |
| 1H O/U 105.5 | 71% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 13.5 | 70% |
| O/U 224.5 | 70% |
| O/U 227.5 | 64% |
| 1H O/U 109.5 | 63% |
| Spread -2.5 | 62% |
| Spread -3.5 | 61% |
| O/U 229.5 | 60% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 59% |
| Spread -4.5 | 57% |
| O/U 230.5 | 57% |
| O/U 231.5 | 56% |
| Walker Kessler: Points O/U 11.5 | 56% |
| Spread -5.5 | 55% |
| Luka Dončić: Assists O/U 7.5 | 55% |
| Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 5.5 | 55% |
| O/U 232.5 | 54% |
| Matisse Thybulle: Points O/U 6.5 | 53% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 5.5 | 53% |
| O/U 233.5 | 52% |
| 1H O/U 113.5 | 52% |
| Spread -6.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| O/U 234.5 | 49% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 25.5 | 49% |
| O/U 235.5 | 47% |
| Luka Dončić: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 47% |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 47% |
| Austin Reaves: Points O/U 23.5 | 46% |
| Spread -7.5 | 46% |
| O/U 236.5 | 45% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 4.5 | 45% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 45% |
| Luka Dončić: Points O/U 32.5 | 44% |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili: Points O/U 11.5 | 44% |
| Spread -8.5 | 43% |
| Walker Kessler: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 43% |
| O/U 237.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 43% |
| O/U 238.5 | 41% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 24.5 | 40% |
| 1H O/U 117.5 | 39% |
| Spread -10.5 | 38% |
| Matisse Thybulle: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 37% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 2.5 | 37% |
| O/U 240.5 | 36% |
| 1H Moneyline | 36% |
| Gui Santos: Points O/U 11.5 | 35% |
| Warriors vs. Lakers | 33% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 33% |
| Austin Reaves: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 32% |
| Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 32% |
| Gui Santos: Assists O/U 3.5 | 31% |
| O/U 243.5 | 31% |
| Spread -13.5 | 30% |
| Stephen Curry: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 28% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 28% |
| Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| O/U 246.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 26% |
| 1H O/U 121.5 | 26% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 3.5 | 25% |
| Spread -16.5 | 22% |
| Spread -5.5 | 22% |
| O/U 249.5 | 20% |
| Spread -19.5 | 16% |
| Spread -8.5 | 14% |
| Brandin Podziemski: Points O/U 14.5 | 3% |
| Brandin Podziemski: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 3% |
| Brandin Podziemski: Assists O/U 3.5 | 2% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 75% YES probability for توقع: Warriors vs. Lakers. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 21 at 10:00PM ET: If the Warriors win, the market will resolve to "Warriors". If the Lakers win, the market will resolve to "Lakers". If the game is pos…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $238K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Warriors vs. Lakers. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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