Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات كورة) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Tadej Pogačar | 96% |
| Cyclist A | 50% |
| Cyclist B | 50% |
| Cyclist C | 50% |
| Cyclist D | 50% |
| Cyclist E | 50% |
| Cyclist F | 50% |
| Cyclist G | 50% |
| Cyclist H | 50% |
| Cyclist I | 50% |
| Cyclist J | 50% |
| Cyclist K | 50% |
| Cyclist L | 50% |
| Cyclist M | 50% |
| Cyclist N | 50% |
| Cyclist O | 50% |
| Cyclist P | 50% |
| Cyclist Q | 50% |
| Cyclist R | 50% |
| Cyclist S | 50% |
| Cyclist T | 50% |
| Cyclist U | 50% |
| Cyclist V | 50% |
| Cyclist W | 50% |
| Cyclist X | 50% |
| Cyclist Y | 50% |
| Cyclist Z | 50% |
| Cyclist AA | 50% |
| Cyclist AB | 50% |
| Cyclist AC | 50% |
| Cyclist AD | 50% |
| Cyclist AE | 50% |
| Cyclist AF | 50% |
| Cyclist AG | 50% |
| Cyclist AH | 50% |
| Cyclist AI | 50% |
| Cyclist AJ | 50% |
| Cyclist AK | 50% |
| Cyclist AL | 50% |
| Cyclist AM | 50% |
| Cyclist AN | 50% |
| Cyclist AO | 50% |
| Cyclist AP | 50% |
| Cyclist AQ | 50% |
| Cyclist AR | 50% |
| Cyclist AS | 50% |
| Cyclist AT | 50% |
| Cyclist AU | 50% |
| Cyclist AV | 50% |
| Cyclist AW | 50% |
| Cyclist AX | 50% |
| Cyclist AY | 50% |
| Cyclist AZ | 50% |
| Cyclist BA | 50% |
| Cyclist BB | 50% |
| Cyclist BC | 50% |
| Cyclist BD | 50% |
| Cyclist BE | 50% |
| Cyclist BF | 50% |
| Cyclist BG | 50% |
| Cyclist BH | 50% |
| Cyclist BI | 50% |
| Cyclist BJ | 50% |
| Cyclist BK | 50% |
| Cyclist BL | 50% |
| Cyclist BM | 50% |
| Cyclist BN | 50% |
| Cyclist BO | 50% |
| Cyclist BP | 50% |
| Cyclist BQ | 50% |
| Cyclist BR | 50% |
| Cyclist BS | 50% |
| Cyclist BT | 50% |
| Cyclist BU | 50% |
| Cyclist BV | 50% |
| Cyclist BW | 50% |
| Cyclist BX | 50% |
| Cyclist BY | 50% |
| Cyclist BZ | 50% |
| Cyclist CA | 50% |
| Cyclist CB | 50% |
| Other | 50% |
| Isaac del Toro | 2% |
| Paul Seixas | 1% |
| Remco Evenepoel | 1% |
| Jonas Vingegaard | 0% |
| Florian Lipowitz | 0% |
| Juan Ayuso | 0% |
| Tobias Halland Johannessen | 0% |
| Tom Pidcock | 0% |
| Cian Uijtdebroeks | 0% |
| Mattias Skjelmose | 0% |
| Richard Carapaz | 0% |
| Antonio Tiberi | 0% |
| Derek Gee-West | 0% |
| Matteo Jorgenson | 0% |
| Thymen Arensman | 0% |
| Adam Yates | 0% |
| Jai Hindley | 0% |
| Lenny Martinez | 0% |
| Ben O'Connor | 0% |
| Kévin Vauquelin | 0% |
| Ben Healy | 0% |
| Luke Plapp | 0% |
| Lennert Van Eetvelt | 0% |
| Egan Bernal | 0% |
| Brandon McNulty | 0% |
| Sepp Kuss | 0% |
| Michael Storer | 0% |
| Matthew Riccitello | 0% |
| Ilan Van Wilder | 0% |
| Valentin Paret-Peintre | 0% |
| Warren Barguil | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, توقع: tour de france 2026: winner stands at 96% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market will resolve to the cyclist that wins the 2026 Tour De France scheduled for July 4, 2026 through July 26, 2026. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed cycl…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Tour De France 2026: Winner. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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Trade توقع: Tour De France 2026: Winner on توقعات كورة
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