Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات كورة) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Tampere: Henri Squire vs Franco Roncadelli | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Tampere: Henri Squire vs Franco Roncadelli Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Tampere: Henri Squire vs Franco Roncadelli Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Tampere: Henri Squire vs Franco Roncadelli Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Tampere: Henri Squire vs Franco Roncadelli Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Tampere: Henri Squire vs Franco Roncadelli Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Tampere: Henri Squire vs Franco Roncadelli Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Tampere: Henri Squire vs Franco Roncadelli Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Tampere: Henri Squire vs Franco Roncadelli Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Tampere: Henri Squire vs Franco Roncadelli Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| Tampere: Henri Squire vs Franco Roncadelli Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Tampere: Henri Squire vs Franco Roncadelli Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Tampere: Henri Squire vs Franco Roncadelli Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Tampere: Henri Squire vs Franco Roncadelli Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| Tampere: Henri Squire vs Franco Roncadelli Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Henri Squire’s meeting with Franco Roncadelli in Tampere has opened with Squire as the market and form favourite, which is consistent with his stronger trailing 12-month and 2026 win rates. TennisStats has no professional head-to-head record for the pair, so the price is being driven more by current level and surface performance than by any direct matchup history; Squire is listed at a slightly better long-run win percentage, while both players have been winning broadly at similar rates over the past year.[1][4]
The 100% implied yes price also reflects how short Challenger clay matches can swing on late withdrawals, walkovers, and live scheduling changes rather than only pre-match ability. Comparable market notes on this fixture indicate that a walkover before the start would not be treated as a normal result for settlement purposes, so traders should watch for official order-of-play updates and any last-minute fitness news from the Tampere draw.[5] Tennis365 had the match scheduled for 23 July, and live-score listings show it in play, which reduces the chance of a pure cancellation outcome but keeps attention on whether either player finishes the job once started.[2][3]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Tampere: Henri Squire vs Franco Roncadelli. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
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