Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات كورة) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Canadian Open, Qualification: Dalibor Svrcina vs Titouan Droguet Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Canadian Open, Qualification: Dalibor Svrcina vs Titouan Droguet Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Canadian Open, Qualification: Dalibor Svrcina vs Titouan Droguet Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Canadian Open, Qualification: Dalibor Svrcina vs Titouan Droguet Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Canadian Open, Qualification: Dalibor Svrcina vs Titouan Droguet Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Canadian Open, Qualification: Dalibor Svrcina vs Titouan Droguet Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Canadian Open, Qualification: Dalibor Svrcina vs Titouan Droguet Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Canadian Open, Qualification: Dalibor Svrcina vs Titouan Droguet Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Canadian Open, Qualification: Dalibor Svrcina vs Titouan Droguet | 0% |
| Canadian Open, Qualification: Dalibor Svrcina vs Titouan Droguet Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Canadian Open, Qualification: Dalibor Svrcina vs Titouan Droguet Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Canadian Open, Qualification: Dalibor Svrcina vs Titouan Droguet Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Canadian Open, Qualification: Dalibor Svrcina vs Titouan Droguet Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Canadian Open, Qualification: Dalibor Svrcina vs Titouan Droguet Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Canadian Open, Qualification: Dalibor Svrcina vs Titouan Droguet Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Dalibor Svrčina and Titouan Droguet met in Montreal qualifying as near neighbours in the ATP rankings, with Svrčina listed at No 116 and Droguet at No 119, so the market is being shaped more by short-term form and surface fit than by any big class gap.[3][9] There is no recorded head-to-head between them in the available matchup databases, which limits the value of prior meetings as a guide.[1][13]
That leaves recent results as the main frame for interpreting a 0% yes price. Droguet has generally carried the slightly stronger 2026 hard-court record in the available season splits, while Svrčina’s hard-court numbers are more mixed, although both have posted comparable overall win rates over the last 12 months.[1][5] The pair were also tightly matched on the court in Montreal, with RotoWire’s match data showing Droguet edging the points and the decisive sets in a three-set contest, and the ATP rankings gap remains too small to justify a lopsided pre-match view on its own.[2][9]
For traders, the key catalysts are whether the official qualifying draw and court schedule keep the match on its listed timing, and whether either player arrives with an updated injury or withdrawal notice before play.[3][6] If the fixture is confirmed and begins on hard court, the main line movement should come from live team-news equivalents in tennis terms: last-minute retirement risk, any reported physical issue, and whether the tournament shifts the order of play, because the market resolves 50-50 if the match is not played, tied, or pushed beyond the seven-day settlement window.[3]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Canadian Open, Qualification: Dalibor Svrcina vs Titouan Droguet. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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