Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات كورة) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
51% | 49% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
51% | 49% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open ATP: Yibing Wu vs Adam Walton Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 51% |
| US Open ATP: Yibing Wu vs Adam Walton Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Yibing Wu vs Adam Walton Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Yibing Wu vs Adam Walton Match O/U 36.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Yibing Wu vs Adam Walton Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Yibing Wu vs Adam Walton Game Spread +/-0.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Yibing Wu vs Adam Walton Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Yibing Wu vs Adam Walton Match O/U 38.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Yibing Wu vs Adam Walton Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Yibing Wu vs Adam Walton Match O/U 40.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Yibing Wu vs Adam Walton Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Yibing Wu vs Adam Walton Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Yibing Wu vs Adam Walton Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Yibing Wu vs Adam Walton Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Yibing Wu vs Adam Walton Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Yibing Wu vs Adam Walton Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Yibing Wu vs Adam Walton Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Yibing Wu vs Adam Walton Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Yibing Wu vs Adam Walton Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Yibing Wu vs Adam Walton Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 46% |
| US Open ATP: Yibing Wu vs Adam Walton Set 3 Winner | 44% |
| US Open ATP: Yibing Wu vs Adam Walton Set 2 Winner | 43% |
| US Open ATP: Yibing Wu vs Adam Walton | 37% |
| US Open ATP: Yibing Wu vs Adam Walton Set 1 Winner | 32% |
| US Open ATP: Yibing Wu vs Adam Walton Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 24% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, توقع: us open atp: yibing wu vs adam walton stands at 51% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Yibing Wu and Adam Walton in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Y…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: US Open ATP: Yibing Wu vs Adam Walton. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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