توقع: Trump out as President by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump remains in the White House, with the crowd-implied probability of him resigning or being permanently removed before 31 July 2026 sitting at just 1% on Polymarket[1]. This near-zero pricing reflects the market’s view that permanent removal is highly unlikely in the remaining weeks, despite recent political turbulence and elevated speculation around impeachment or the 25th Amendment[1]. Historical precedents for presidential removal are vanishingly rare; only two presidents have faced impeachment, and neither was removed from office, while the 25th Amendment has never been invoked to permanently oust a sitting president. Even with Kalshi showing a 39% probability of removal via the 25th Amendment by 2026, the specific threshold for *permanent* removal by late July remains a far stricter bar that markets deem improbable[3].

Traders should monitor House impeachment timelines and any formal announcements regarding the 25th Amendment, as an announcement of resignation or removal before the settlement date resolves the market to “Yes” immediately, regardless of when the effect takes place[1]. Recent news indicates proposed impeachment resolutions like H. Res. 939 have been set aside, and current polling shows Trump’s approval at 45%, recovering slightly from lows but still indicating significant disapproval[4]. While Polymarket prices impeachment odds at 69% by the end of his term and 6% in 2026 specifically, the gap between impeachment and permanent removal is critical[2]. Watch for shifts in Kalshi’s 25th Amendment odds, which rose to 14% for 2026, and any sudden changes in midterm election forecasts that could alter House control dynamics[3][4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Trump out as President by July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.