توقع: Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Sam Bankman-Fried has formally applied for a presidential pardon from Donald Trump, yet the White House has explicitly stated the President will not grant clemency to the convicted FTX founder. Trump publicly rejected the possibility twice in 2026, citing the $11 billion scale of the fraud, and his position remains unchanged as of mid-2026 [1][2]. The application, lodged on 8 June 2026, requests a “pardon after completion of sentence,” which would not release him from his 25-year term but could restore civil rights post-incarceration [3][4].

Historically, Trump has granted 88 individual pardons, over half for white-collar offenses including money laundering and bank fraud, yet he has consistently excluded high-profile figures tied to massive financial collapses like FTX [10]. Unlike his clemency for crypto figure Changpeng Zhao, Trump has differentiated SBF by emphasising the unprecedented victim losses, making a pardon a statistical outlier rather than a precedent-following decision [2][9]. Current crowd-implied probability of 0% aligns with this established stance, reflecting the absence of any credible signal suggesting a reversal.

Traders should monitor the DOJ’s Office of the Pardon Attorney for status updates on the pending application, though no timeline exists for review [1][3]. Key catalysts include any public shift in Trump’s rhetoric, particularly if he addresses crypto clemency broadly in upcoming speeches, or if SBF’s ongoing appeal yields a legal breakthrough that alters the political calculus [2][7]. However, with Trump’s January 2026 declaration remaining firm and no congressional or White House movement toward SBF’s relief, the path to a “Yes” resolution remains effectively closed [6][11].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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