توقع: Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Platform comparison

Market context

Global temperatures in 2026 are being driven by a strong-to-very-strong El Niño that intensified after its official declaration in June, pushing the year toward the top tier of historical heat records. Every published month so far has ranked among the five warmest globally for that calendar month, maintaining a consistent pattern of extreme warmth without a single dip outside the top five [4]. This sustained intensity places 2026 in direct contention with 2024, the current record holder at 1.28°C above the NASA baseline, though a full-year dataset is still required to confirm a definitive ranking [4].

Historical projections show significant divergence on the exact rank, framing the current 41% crowd probability for a top-two finish. Carbon Brief estimates a 62% chance that 2026 ends as the second-warmest year, with a 19% probability of surpassing 2024 to become number one [1]. Conversely, Berkeley Earth’s model suggests a more conservative outcome, assigning a 51% probability to a fourth-place finish and only a 10% chance of first place [6]. The 41% market implied probability sits between these expert views, reflecting uncertainty over whether the El Niño’s lagged warming effect will peak sufficiently to break the 2024 record [4].

Traders must monitor the final six months of temperature data, as the El Niño is still intensifying through the second half of the year [4]. The primary catalyst is the official annual Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index release, which will resolve the market immediately upon publication regardless of future revisions [1]. Key dependencies include the WMO’s consolidated analysis of eight datasets and NOAA’s official position, which currently states it is “very likely” the year lands in the top five but remains cautious on a first-place claim [4]. Any deviation in monthly anomalies from the current top-five trend could sharply alter the final rank.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.