توقع: Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol on 31 July will be set by the afternoon peak, and the market resolves on the single daily maximum rather than any average or end-of-day reading. Amsterdam’s late-July climate is usually moderate rather than extreme: long-run July highs cluster around 22–23°C, with city climate pages putting the monthly mean high near 72°F/22°C and typical end-of-month values in the low 20s Celsius.[8][12][13]

That makes the current 0% YES price look like a strong scepticism signal against a genuinely hot outcome, but comparable heat events show the tail risk is real. Amsterdam has recently seen July extremes far above normal, including a city record of 36.4°C in July 2019 and a 35.8°C high on 1 July 2025, while the Netherlands’ national record stands at 40.7°C from 2019.[12][14] A single warm-air intrusion can push Schiphol well beyond the seasonal average, so traders generally focus less on the month’s climatology and more on whether the day is aligned with a continent-wide heat ridge.[10][12]

The main catalysts are the local forecast path into the afternoon, cloud cover, wind direction, and whether thunderstorms or marine breezes suppress the high before the measurement window closes. Current forecast pages for Amsterdam point to a warm, breezy day with highs around 26°C and only a small drizzle chance, which would sit below the sort of levels needed for the upper temperature bands to bite.[3] The relevant dependency is whether updated guidance shifts the peak upward before the settlement cutoff, because Schiphol’s observed maximum can move materially with just a few degrees of forecast revision.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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