توقع: Highest temperature in Beijing on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing Capital International Airport is in its main summer heat window, and the market is about the **single highest reading** logged there on 4 August, not the day’s average or the forecast high. Broad August climatology points to a hot, humid pattern with frequent showers and thunderstorms, with typical daytime highs around 30-32°C and occasional spikes into the mid-30s, so the centre of the distribution sits well above the low-30s but rain and cloud cover can cap the top end.[4][12][17]

That framing makes a 0% “Yes” price look like a hard call against the seasonal baseline, because Beijing’s August heat often delivers at least one brief surge if morning sunshine is strong and convection arrives later in the day. Comparable August forecasts for Beijing cluster around the low- to mid-30s, including a 31.5°C / 22.5°C guide for 4 August and other model outputs around 31-36°C, which suggests the market is really about whether the airport station gets enough clearing for a higher one-off peak.[3][5][7][10]

The main catalysts for traders are short-term forecast updates, especially cloud cover, rainfall timing and the chance of afternoon thunderstorms, because those are the factors most likely to hold the maximum down even in a hot air mass.[1][13][16] The current day’s public forecasts already show warm conditions with rain risk and only modest wind, but the actual settlement depends on the station’s recorded maximum rather than the forecast itself, so late changes in storm timing or a hotter-than-expected morning can still move the outcome materially.[1][2][11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Beijing on August 4?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.