توقع: Highest temperature in Beijing on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing’s highest temperature on 16 July 2026 will be recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, with settlement based on Wunderground’s daily maximum in degrees Celsius. The market currently shows 0% probability for any outcome below 34°C, while 34°C is priced at 100% as the frontrunner, reflecting strong consensus that the day will hit at least that threshold [1].

Historically, July is Beijing’s hottest month, with average maximums of 31°C but two-thirds of days exceeding that and highs frequently reaching above 35°C [3]. The city experiences a warm, humid summer climate in July, often ranging 23°C to 31°C, yet the frequency of days above 35°C supports the market’s tight pricing around 34°C as the likely ceiling [2]. Given that about two-thirds of July days are hotter than the average maximum, the 0% probability on lower ranges aligns with the typical intensity of mid-summer heat in the region [3].

Traders should monitor Wunderground’s daily update for ZBAA once the 16 July record is published, as the resolution source is explicitly tied to that dataset [1]. No weather announcements or forecasts are expected to alter the outcome after the day ends, but any sudden shift in cloud cover or rainfall—July averages 185 mm and over 10 rainy days—could push temperatures below 34°C if a storm system moves through [2]. The key dependency is the final Wunderground entry; until it is confirmed, the 100% price on 34°C remains the only supported outcome [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Beijing on July 16?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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