توقع: Highest temperature in Beijing on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing's peak temperature on 28 July 2026 will be recorded at the Capital International Airport meteorological station and resolved against historical data from Weather Underground. July represents the height of Beijing's summer season, when daily maxima typically range between 29°C and 34°C, though heat waves can push readings several degrees higher. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning traders must account for the full diurnal cycle before final resolution.

Historical precedent shows that extreme heat events in Beijing during late July occur irregularly rather than annually. The city experienced a 41.1°C reading in June 2022, the highest on record, but July maxima have more commonly peaked in the 35–37°C band during recent decades. The 0% crowd probability suggests either that no temperature range has been priced into the market structure, or that the resolution categories themselves may be positioned at thresholds traders consider unlikely given typical seasonal patterns. Comparable years with documented heat stress—such as 2010 and 2013—saw late-July peaks between 35°C and 37°C, establishing a baseline against which 28 July 2026 should be evaluated.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in the week preceding the settlement date, as these typically provide 7–10 day outlooks identifying high-pressure systems or anomalous heat patterns. El Niño or La Niña conditions active during mid-2026 will influence broader temperature trajectories across East Asia. Real-time atmospheric pressure data and upper-air patterns from late July will determine whether conditions favour a typical summer maximum or an outlier event.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Beijing on July 28?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.