توقع: Highest temperature in Busan on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

Gimhae International Airport in Busan will record its highest daily temperature on 28 July 2026, with settlement determined by Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific station. South Korea's southern coast experiences intense summer heat during late July, when the East Asian summer monsoon typically peaks and high-pressure systems dominate the region. Busan's July averages sit around 26–28°C, though daily highs frequently exceed 30°C during heat waves.

Historical precedent shows Busan regularly records temperatures between 32–35°C in late July, with extreme events pushing toward 37–38°C. The city's 2018 heat wave saw temperatures reach 38.3°C on 4 August, whilst July 2022 brought sustained readings above 33°C for extended periods. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific temperature thresholds offered or expect unusually cool conditions for the season—a statistical outlier given the region's climatic patterns.

The critical variable for this market is the East Asian summer monsoon's intensity and timing in late July 2026. Traders should monitor meteorological forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and long-range climate models from May onwards, as these will indicate whether a high-pressure ridge or monsoon trough dominates the peninsula during settlement week. El Niño or La Niña conditions in the Pacific can shift monsoon behaviour significantly, making seasonal climate outlooks essential for calibrating temperature expectations.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Busan on July 28?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.