توقع: Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu will experience peak summer heat on 11 August 2026, with the settlement hinging on the highest temperature recorded at Shuangliu International Airport Station throughout that day. The market currently shows 0% probability, suggesting traders expect temperatures to fall outside the upper threshold range being tested, though the specific range boundaries are not detailed in available documentation.

Chengdu's August climate is characterised by consistent high temperatures and humidity. Historical data from the city shows daily maximums typically ranging between 29–35°C during mid-August, with occasional spikes to 36–37°C during particularly intense heat waves. The 2013 heat wave saw temperatures reach 40°C, though such extremes remain uncommon. Recent summers have shown relatively stable patterns, with August highs clustering around 32–34°C at the airport station. The current 0% probability suggests the market is pricing in either a notably cool August anomaly or that the resolution range sits below typical expectations for this period.

Traders should monitor China's meteorological forecasts released in late July 2026, which typically provide 10–14 day outlooks for regional temperature patterns. The East Asian summer monsoon's strength will be a critical factor—a weakened monsoon could drive temperatures higher, whilst a vigorous system might suppress peaks. Any significant weather systems moving through central China in early August could shift conditions materially. Settlement depends entirely on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table from Shuangliu station, making data availability and recording accuracy the final arbiter of resolution.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 11?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.