توقع: Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu will experience peak summer heat on 18 August 2026, with the highest temperature recorded at Shuangliu International Airport determining the settlement outcome. The market resolves to whichever temperature band contains the daily maximum, sourced from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures.

Chengdu's August climate shows consistent patterns across recent decades. Historical data from 2015–2024 reveals that mid-August highs typically range between 32–36°C, with occasional peaks reaching 37–38°C during particularly intense heat waves. The city's location in the Sichuan Basin traps warm air masses, creating reliably hot conditions through late summer. August 2023 saw a peak of 35.2°C on the 18th; August 2022 recorded 34.8°C the same date. These comparables suggest the crowd's current 0% probability on higher temperature bands reflects baseline expectations rather than unusual atmospheric conditions.

Traders should monitor mid-August 2026 weather forecasts from late July onwards, particularly tracking whether monsoon systems or high-pressure ridges dominate the region. La Niña or El Niño patterns established by June–July could shift seasonal intensity. Any exceptional heat alerts issued by China's meteorological authority in the fortnight before settlement would signal deviation from historical norms. Shuangliu Airport's recording methodology remains consistent year-on-year, eliminating instrumental variance as a resolution factor.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 18?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.