توقع: Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport is still in the core of the city’s August heat and humidity, so the relevant question is whether today’s maximum can clear the low-30s or gets held down by cloud and rain. Long-run August guides put Chengdu around 30–32°C for daytime highs, with the month often hot, sticky and prone to showers, while historical August entries also show single-day highs closer to the high 20s on some dates.[1][13][20]

For 3 August specifically, multiple forecast feeds cluster around a high of 33°C with a low near 23–24°C, which is comfortably above the historical August average and would leave the market in the higher temperature bands if that forecast holds.[2][3][12] The crowd-implied 0% YES looks hard to reconcile with those public forecasts, but the settlement source is the airport station’s recorded daily maximum on Wunderground, so the key risk is not the regional forecast itself but whether rainfall timing, cloud cover or an observation gap trims the official peak below the market’s threshold.[17]

Traders should watch the daytime forecast updates for Chengdu Airport, especially any shift in precipitation probability or a drop in the expected top end from 33°C towards the high 20s.[15][17] In summer, Chengdu can still produce very warm afternoons even when rain is in the picture, so the line will be most sensitive to whether convection arrives early enough to suppress the airport station’s peak temperature rather than just breaking the heat later in the day.[1][20]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 3?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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