توقع: Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s summer heat is already in full swing, with the city routinely hitting extreme highs in July as it enters its peak monsoon-affected warm season. The market in question seeks the highest temperature recorded on 20 July 2026 at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport, a key meteorological site for the region. Despite the current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any outcome, the frontrunner on Polymarket is 38°C at 100%, suggesting a sharp divergence between trader sentiment and the actual resolution data being tracked [1].

Historically, Chengdu sees July highs frequently exceed 35°C, with 38°C being a common peak during dry, high-pressure spells. In recent years, temperatures have climbed even higher, with 2022 and 2023 both recording peaks near 40°C under similar atmospheric conditions. The 0% probability assigned to all outcomes in this market appears inconsistent with both seasonal norms and the Polymarket frontrunner, which strongly favours 38°C as the likely resolution [1].

Traders should monitor daily Wunderground updates for the Shuangliu station, as the market resolves strictly on that source’s recorded maximum for 20 July. Any sudden shift in cloud cover, rainfall, or wind patterns ahead of the settlement window could alter the peak temperature. With the settlement ending on 2026-07-20T12:00:00Z, the final data point will be locked in by midday UTC, making real-time weather feeds the primary catalyst for price movement [1].

Sources: 1

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 20?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.