توقع: Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu will record its highest temperature on 25 July 2026 at Shuangliu International Airport Station, with settlement determined by Wunderground historical data. The market currently shows 0% probability across all temperature bands, suggesting either incomplete pricing or extreme uncertainty about which range will resolve.

Chengdu's July climate sits firmly within its hottest season. Historical records show the city regularly exceeds 35°C during mid-to-late July, with peaks often reaching 37–39°C. The 2023 summer saw temperatures consistently above 36°C throughout July, whilst 2022 recorded similar patterns. Shuangliu Airport, located in the city's eastern suburbs, typically registers temperatures 1–2°C lower than central urban areas due to its position near water features and lower urban density. Traders should reference the past five years of Wunderground data for 25 July specifically to establish baseline expectations, as individual day variation can be substantial depending on cloud cover and atmospheric conditions.

The key variable affecting 25 July 2026 will be monsoon activity and upper-level atmospheric patterns in late July. Chengdu sits within the East Asian summer monsoon zone, meaning moisture influx and cloud development can suppress temperatures by 3–5°C compared to clear-sky days. Any significant weather system moving through the region in the days preceding 25 July could shift outcomes materially. Traders should monitor seasonal forecasts from China Meteorological Administration releases in early July 2026, as these typically provide 10–15 day outlooks that would cover this settlement date.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 25?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.