توقع: Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chongqing’s reading on 3 August will hinge on whether the city follows its usual midsummer pattern of oppressive heat and weak daytime relief. August is typically Chongqing’s hottest month, with average highs around 34°C, and guide-style climate pages put the 3 August historical high at about 34.7°C, which frames the market as one where the upper 30s are normal and anything materially below that would be a cooler-than-usual outcome.[2][3][8]

The current 0% YES price implies the market is treating an above-threshold extreme as very unlikely, but the historical backdrop does not support a low-heat assumption in principle. Chongqing’s all-time record heat is 43°C, set in August 2022, and multiple climate sources describe peak August highs in the high 30s to low 40s during hot spells, so the main question is not whether heat can happen, but how much cloud, rain and haze suppress the daytime maximum at the airport station.[3][5][15]

For traders, the key catalysts are the day’s actual forecast evolution and any convective rain timing, since August in Chongqing is also a rainy season month and showers can cap the maximum even when the air mass is hot.[2][15] The settlement source is the Wunderground history page for Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station, so the decisive move usually comes from the station’s observed peak rather than citywide averages; in practical terms, the market will follow whether the airport logs a standard mid-30s high or a hotter spike before cloud and rainfall arrive.[1][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 3?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.