توقع: Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chongqing is currently experiencing sunny conditions with temperatures around 84°F (29°C) on the morning of 17 July 2026, but the market concerns the peak temperature recorded later today at the Jiangbei International Airport Station. Historical data for mid-July in Chongqing shows the city frequently enters its hottest period, with past years often recording highs exceeding 35°C and occasionally reaching 40°C or more during heatwaves. The current 0% crowd-implied probability for any specific outcome suggests either a technical error in the market interface or a complete lack of trading activity, as climatic norms strongly indicate a high temperature will be recorded within standard summer ranges for this region.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground throughout the day, as the settlement relies exclusively on the highest temperature recorded for all times on 17 July 2026 at the specified station. Recent weather patterns in Chongqing show a tendency for intense afternoon heat under clear skies, meaning the peak temperature is likely to occur between 14:00 and 16:00 local time. No specific announcements or injury news apply to this weather event, but the primary dependency is the absence of sudden cloud cover or precipitation that could suppress the daily maximum. Given the sunny conditions observed at 10:00 UTC, the trajectory points toward a significant rise in temperature by afternoon, making the current zero probability across all ranges highly anomalous relative to historical climatology.

Sources: 1

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 17?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.