توقع: Highest temperature in Dallas on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas Love Field was forecast to peak well above the low 100s on 6 August, with market pricing clustering around the **100-101°F** and **98-99°F** bands rather than the extreme upper ranges. That fits the usual late-summer pattern in North Texas: once the heat ridge is established, daily highs often land within a narrow corridor unless cloud cover, thunderstorms, or a front interrupts the run of hot afternoons. Weather Underground’s historical page for the date is the settlement source, so the key figure is the highest reading in the **Daily Observations** table, not the summary high/low banner.[1][2][3]

For context, Dallas has a long record of 100°F-plus days, and the National Weather Service notes that the station has repeatedly posted very hot maxima in past summers, including 110°F+ extremes in exceptional years.[5][8] That history matters because it shows 100°F is not unusual in August, but it also argues against reading a 0% yes price as a true impossibility; rather, it suggests the market was expecting a cooler-than-forecast outcome or had not yet repriced fully for the day’s heat. Comparable temperature markets often move late, once the first official observations confirm whether the day is running a degree or two hotter than forecast.[2][4]

The main catalysts are the afternoon observation cycle, any updated National Weather Service forecast for the Dallas area, and whether thunderstorms or outflow boundaries develop enough to cap the temperature before the station’s daily maximum is set. Weather Underground explicitly allows revisions within the market window until the first datapoint for the following date is published, so late adjustments in the station record can still matter.[2][3] CBS News Texas reported persistent triple-digit heat across North Texas on 6 August, which is the sort of setup that keeps the upper temperature bands live until the final observations are logged.[9]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Dallas on August 6?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.