توقع: Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou will experience peak summer heat on 25 July 2026, with the settlement hinging on the single highest temperature reading recorded at Baiyun International Airport Station throughout that calendar day. The resolution mechanism uses Wunderground's historical weather database, which aggregates hourly observations from the airport's official meteorological station—the standard reference point for Guangzhou's official temperature records.

Guangzhou's July temperatures have historically clustered in the 33–37°C range, with extreme readings occasionally breaching 38°C during particularly intense heat waves. The city's subtropical monsoon climate produces consistent high-temperature patterns in midsummer, though the precise daily maximum varies with atmospheric pressure systems and moisture transport from the South China Sea. Historical data from the past decade shows that late-July readings at Baiyun typically fall within the 35–37°C band, with outlier events (39°C+) occurring roughly once every three to four years when heat domes establish over southern China.

Traders should monitor the Asian summer monsoon's intensity and any developing tropical systems in the western Pacific during early July 2026, as these drive moisture and convection patterns that moderate or amplify heat. The El Niño/La Niña phase heading into boreal summer will influence large-scale circulation; a weak monsoon or anomalously dry pattern would favour higher readings, whilst active convection and cloud cover would suppress daily maxima. Wunderground's forecast models and the China Meteorological Administration's seasonal outlooks, typically released in June, will provide early signals on whether conditions favour above or below the historical median.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 25?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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